The market is not efficient or inefficient at all times. The trick is to find buying opportunities at the inefficient moment and sell when Mr. Efficient Market rules the day for a fleeting moment.
Friday, October 14, 2011
Bear market rally
Everybody talks about a bear market differently. My favorite explanation of how the name accurately describes the market during a bear phase is the viciousness of the bear market rally. Mind you, a bear attacks by standing up on it hind legs and viciously claw its prey to pieces and mauls them to death. That, in my view, most aptly depicts how today's market is behaving. From the early October low, the market has put on a very powerful rally. If one believes the news trickle coming out of Europe that a grand bargain is soon to be in place to end all the sovereign debt troubles, it is hard not to go along for a ride and even push the bull case that all is (almost) clear for a resumption of the recovery. The sad truth is, though, even if the debt crisis is resolved tomorrow, the growth is nowhere to be found. We have exhausted ourselves propping up the dead entities (from households to countries that overextended beyond their means), it will be a long while before we find our collective mojo again. Let's not forget, politicians are working overtime to make things worse, all around the globe. Batten down the hatches!
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